Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
